Aufgrund des aktuellen schwachen Goldpreises finden Sie anbei ein paar Argumente die für einen überverkauften Markt im Goldminenaktienbereich stehen – zusammengefasst von Tocqueville Asset Management:

Valuation: Most gold mining equities are trading at prices comparable to 2000 when the gold price was below $300/ounce versus $1100 now.

Upside Potential: For every 10% rise in the gold price, we estimate mining shares can provide 20%-30% appreciation. This is based on historical information.

Gold Mining Industry Transformation: The four year decline in the gold price has forced significant cost cutting, balance sheet restructuring, and asset divestitures for some, and for others created significant M&A opportunities that we believe will prove accretive to shareholder value.

Portfolio Opportunities: Our objective is invest selectively within the gold mining universe, only in those companies that are generating value internally and growth through discovery of new mines, the buildout of new production, and opportunistic acquisitions and restructuring. Not all gold mining companies have done this selectively. Our portfolio consists of only the top layer of the sector that succeeds in these categories.

Gold bullion is passive: While we advocate exposure to bullion as insurance against the failings of paper currency, it is a passive investment with no attributes of growth, dividend income, and successful business development. Gold mining equities provide dynamic exposure to the same macroeconomic issues with these additional positive attributes.

Current company valuations:  Currently our stocks are valued at this gold price of $1103 per ounce at a P/CF of 8.7x for 2015 and a P/CF of 6.8x for 2016.   That compares to the average for the year-to-date, at higher gold prices (average of $1202 per ounce), of 8.6x and 7.4x, respectively.   If one considers that gold equity prices reflect the cumulative cash flow from the companies’ future production, the stock valuations are currently implying a gold price of $1201 per ounce. The average to-date has been about $60 higher.

Average all-in costs:  For our holdings that produce gold, we estimate the all in costs are approximately $1090 per ounce, and this compares to the overall industry, which is at about $1243 per ounce which includes higher cost producers we do not own.

Average production costs:  For our holdings, the cash production costs are approximately $790 per ounce, and this compares to the overall industry, which is at $950 per ounce – inclusive of higher cost producers.  We expect costs to come down with the report for the 2Q15 as a result of the realization of lower oil prices and favourable local currency related costs.  For our holdings and the industry, we anticipate this impact could result in reported costs about 2-3% lower than our current estimate.  This means that our holdings generate positive cash flow even at the current depressed gold price.